Autor:

Kebir, Oussama ; Nouaouri, Issam ; Rejeb, Lilia ; Ben Said, Lamjed

Współtwórca:

Wiśniewski, Remigiusz - ed. ; Gomes, Luis - ed. ; Wan, Shaohua - ed.

Tytuł:

ATiPreTA: An analytical model for time-dependent prediction of terrorist attacks

Podtytuł:

.

Tytuł publikacji grupowej:

AMCS, volume 32 (2022)

Temat i słowa kluczowe:

terrorist attacks ; attack classification ; mathematical modeling ; dynamic behavior simulation ; damage prediction

Abstract:

In counter-terrorism actions, commanders are confronted with difficult and important challenges. Their decision-making processes follow military instructions and must consider the humanitarian aspect of the mission. In this paper, we aim to respond to the question: "What would the casualties be if governmental forces reacted in a given way with given resources?" Within a similar context, decision-support systems are required due to the variety and complexity of modern attacks as well as the enormous quantity of information that must be treated in real time. ; The majority of mathematical models are not suitable for real-time events. Therefore, we propose an analytical model for a time-dependent prediction of terrorist attacks (ATiPreTA). The output of our model is consistent with casualty data from two important terrorist events known in Tunisia: Bardo and Sousse attacks. The sensitivity and experimental analyses show that the results are significant. Some operational insights are also discussed.

Wydawca:

Zielona Góra: Uniwersytet Zielonogórski

Data wydania:

2022

Typ zasobu:

artykuł

DOI:

10.34768/amcs-2022-0036

Strony:

495-510

Źródło:

AMCS, volume 32, number 3 (2022) ; kliknij tutaj, żeby przejść

Jezyk:

eng

Licencja CC BY 4.0:

kliknij tutaj, żeby przejść

Prawa do dysponowania publikacją:

Biblioteka Uniwersytetu Zielonogórskiego